Mumbai, Jan 30 || India can sustain “J‑curve” gains despite rupee weakness, if trade diversion becomes embedded in durable supply chains and is supported by logistics efficiencies, a report said on Friday.
The report from Emkay Global Financial Services further stressed restrained tariffs on capital goods and intermediaries as well as steady long‑term FDI to sustain the J-curve gains, adding that these factors will matter far more than tariffs over the medium term.
It projected a current account deficit of 1.3 per cent of GDP for FY27 and forecasted USD/INR trading in an 87–95 range, with the 10‑year government bond yield ending FY26 and FY27 at about 6.50 per cent and 6.25 per cent, respectively.
The firm forecasts FY27 Union Budget to continue the path of "calibrated fiscal consolidation, with the government shifting its fiscal anchor to debt-to-GDP."
The ‘Budget 2026’ will aim to strike a fine balance between fiscal prudence, growth support and reform continuity, while keeping India’s medium-term macro stability intact, it predicted.