New Delhi, Dec 17 || Geopolitical uncertainties driven by the delay in the India-US trade deal have been the single-most important reasons for the rupee sliding against the US dollar, an SBI Research report said on Wednesday, adding that the rupee is likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the next fiscal.
India’s trade data shows the remarkable resilience in navigating through prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labour supply shocks.
“While the geopolitical risk index has moderated since April 2025, the current average value of the index for April-October 2025 is much greater than its decadal average, which indicates how much pressure global uncertainties are exerting on INR," State Bank of India's (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said.
Dr Ghosh further stated that consistent with their empirical analysis, "the rupee is currently in a depreciating regime and is likely to exit it".
After breaching the psychologically important mark of 90 per US dollar, the rupee crossed the 91-level on Tuesday.