New Delhi, May 21 || Despite weathering effects precipitated by global upheavals, Indian economy stays largely resilient and is projected to clock a GDP growth around 6.4-6.5 per cent in Q4 FY25, an SBI report said on Wednesday.
To estimate GDP statistically, the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has built a ‘Nowcasting Model’ with 36 high frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy.
The model uses the dynamic factor model to estimate the common or representative or latent factor of all the high frequency indicators from Q4 of FY13 to Q2 of FY23.
“As per our ‘Nowcasting Model’, the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 FY25 should come around 6.4-6.5 per cent,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, SBI.
Assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 to Q3 estimates in the upcoming data release by NSO, “we expect FY25 GDP to stand at 6.3 per cent,” Ghosh mentioned.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala within the next four to five days — well ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.
If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as anticipated, it would mark the earliest onset over mainland India since 2009, when it began on May 23.