New Delhi, May 6 || Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday pegged India's GDP growth at 6.3 per cent for 2025 and expects the economy to pick up momentum in 2026 to record a 6.5 per cent growth rate.
Moody’s forecast is in line with the IMF outlook, which sees India as the only major economy in the world to record an over 6 per cent growth rate in 2025.
"Uncertainty surrounding global economic policies is likely to take a toll on consumer, business and financial activity," Moody’s said in its Global Macro Outlook’s May update. The rating agency had earlier projected a 6.5 per cent growth rate for India.
Despite a pause and reduction in some tariffs, policy uncertainty and trade tensions, especially between the US and China, are likely to dampen global trade and investment with consequences across the G20 countries, Moody’s said.
Besides trade uncertainties, rising tensions are likely to weigh down growth. Geopolitical stresses are another potential downside risk to the baseline forecasts, the rating agency said.
In recent days, tensions have flared up between India and Pakistan in South Asia and China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. These join unresolved wars in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, Moody’s observed.
"Costs to investors and businesses are likely to rise as they factor for new geopolitical configurations when deciding where to invest, expand and/or source goods," it added.